In an exclusive interview, Venâncio Mondlane shared his insights on the fervor among young voters as Mozambique approaches its presidential elections. Despite Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party being considered the likely frontrunner, the atmosphere surrounding Mondlane’s independent candidacy is particularly vibrant, especially among the nation’s youth in a country where the median age is merely 17.
Frelimo, which has maintained a stronghold on the country’s politics since gaining independence from Portuguese colonial rule in 1975, has introduced a presidential candidate born after that pivotal moment for the first time. Daniel Chapo, a relatively obscure provincial governor, was selected in May to succeed outgoing President Filipe Nyusi.
Traditionally, Renamo has been Frelimo’s primary political competitor, leading to a brutal civil war from 1977 to 1992 that claimed around one million lives. However, Mondlane, who left Renamo in June to run as an independent after unsuccessful attempts to unseat its leader, Ossufo Momade, is making significant inroads with younger voters.
Political analysts express skepticism regarding Frelimo’s willingness to cede power, citing obstacles that the party has created for opponents in terms of campaigning and voter registration. Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, noted, “Elections are never difficult for an authoritarian regime. Regardless of the circumstances, the final outcome doesn’t hinge on the voters’ will.”
Mondlane’s energetic speeches at late-night rallies have galvanized enthusiastic crowds across the nation, prompting rival candidates to engage more actively on social media and pledge to renegotiate contracts in critical sectors like natural gas and mining. Nhamirre commented, “Mondlane is a gamechanger… If this were a fair and free election, he would at least secure a second position.” Yet, he warned of potential electoral manipulation by Frelimo to ensure that Momade finishes second, thereby diminishing Mondlane’s influence.
According to the World Bank, Mozambique ranks as the eighth poorest country in the world, with a per capita GDP of merely $608. While the country is rich in natural resources like coal and rubies, efforts to capitalize on its vast natural gas reserves have been hampered by an insurgency linked to the Islamic State in Cabo Delgado province.
The economy faced severe setbacks following revelations of $2 billion in corrupt hidden loans, referred to as “tuna bonds,” which were supposedly intended to finance a state fishing fleet and enhance maritime security. This scandal, uncovered in 2016, caused the International Monetary Fund and other international backers to withdraw their support.
Similar to many rapidly growing populations across Africa, Mozambique’s educated urban youth are increasingly disillusioned with their circumstances. However, analysts contend that the skewed political playing field suggests a repetition of the 2019 presidential election results is likely, where Nyusi secured 73% of the vote compared to Momade’s 22%.
Anne Pitcher, a politics professor at the University of Michigan, pointed out, “They’ve rigged the process even before voting begins. They’ve created barriers for voter registration. In regions where they hold power, they ensure a more comprehensive voter registration process.”
In June, the Public Integrity Center, an NGO, reported nearly 879,000 fraudulent voters among 17 million registered individuals, claiming that a third of registered voters in Gaza, a Frelimo stronghold, were “ghost voters.”
While Mondlane’s candidacy has inspired many young Mozambicans, it has also fractured the opposition, according to independent political analyst Dércio Alfazema. “People are frustrated with the country’s current state, and many will vote against Frelimo,” he observed. “However, I don’t believe these votes will be enough to oust Frelimo from power.”
