Jon Tester is fighting to retain his Senate seat in a political landscape where moderate Democrats like him are increasingly at risk in Montana.
Reflecting on his early campaign trails, former Congressman Max Baucus recalls the time he embarked on a 630-mile trek across the state in 1974, hoping to connect with voters. He remembers walking into a blizzard on his first day. “It was cold! But the blizzard didn’t last that long,” he laughs, pointing to a photo of his snow-covered self. During that two-and-a-half-month journey, he lost 12 pounds but gained invaluable insights and connections. Baucus defeated a Republican incumbent and later spent 36 years as a senator, witnessing dramatic shifts in his home state—most notably, the decline of the Democratic Party.
Now, Jon Tester, a moderate Democrat and current senator, is in a heated race against Republican contender Tim Sheehy for the November 5 election. Polls indicate that Tester is trailing, and the outcome might affect control of the closely divided Senate, influencing the agendas of either a President Kamala Harris or a President Donald Trump.
The race is seen as a barometer for Democratic viability in rural states that have increasingly leaned toward Trump’s Republican Party. It also raises questions about whether the grassroots campaigning style Baucus relied on decades ago can compete with today’s intricate media and demographic landscape.
Baucus, now 82, reminisced about a time when Montana politics were characterized by face-to-face interaction. “Montana was not yet discovered,” he recalls, seated next to vintage campaign posters in a historic building that bears his name in Bozeman. “Back then, it was much more about knocking on doors and knowing people personally. Montana really felt like one big small town.”
At 68, Tester embodies this traditional approach to politics. His campaign highlights his humble origins as a dirt farmer and uses personal anecdotes, including the loss of three fingers in a meat grinder— an injury linked to his family’s farming roots. After 18 years in the Senate, he’s recognized for championing issues important to agriculture, veterans, and Native communities.
For some voters, this authenticity is critical. Nels Johnson, a 62-year-old conservation worker in Bozeman, says, “I’m going to vote for Jon Tester because he’s a third-generation Montanan who truly understands our values and what we aspire to be. His opponent doesn’t seem as connected.”
In contrast, Sheehy, 37, comes across as an outsider. A former Navy Seal who moved to Montana in 2014 to raise a family and launch an aerial firefighting business, he aligns himself with Trump’s brand of politics. Lacking previous political experience, he’s been reticent with the media, preferring to focus on his business ventures and military background.
Marc Racicot, a former governor of Montana, remarked, “Mr. Sheehy is certainly influenced by Trump, which will shape how he conducts his campaign and govern.”
The differences between the candidates are stark, particularly regarding their relationships to this year’s presidential nominees. In August, Sheehy was present with Trump at a rally in Bozeman, following Trump’s significant support in the state during the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Tester has distanced himself from endorsing either Harris or Trump, recognizing how Montana’s political climate has transformed since he took office in 2007.
Once dominated by Democrats, Montana’s political scene has shifted rightward, especially with an influx of new residents from states like Arizona and California. The state’s political landscape has become more polarized, and Tester now stands as the last Democrat in statewide office.
Historical ties are vital, but Tester’s challenges are tougher than ever, especially with Trump leading the national conversation. He is urging voters to split their tickets, appealing to rural independence in an era where partisanship is on the rise.
Political analyst Mike Dennison noted the scale of investment in this race is unprecedented for Montana, suggesting it could reach a staggering $250 million.
Amid the flood of campaign advertisements, affordability issues are becoming a critical concern for many voters in pricier cities like Bozeman and Missoula. Brian Guyer, who runs a local shelter, highlighted the rising number of individuals facing housing insecurity. “They often end up seeking out shelters because of skyrocketing rents,” he said, adding that many who work locally can no longer afford housing.
Sheehy has adopted a national narrative, suggesting that immigration is responsible for the housing crisis, while Democrats argue that the issue stems primarily from local economic conditions and state legislative actions. Progressive voices like Zooey Zephyr challenge these narratives, emphasizing the need for effective state policies rather than scapegoating marginalized communities.
The demographic shift in Montana is significant, with many newcomers now calling it home. Luke Huffines, a recent transplant, voiced support for Sheehy, citing admiration for his military background and entrepreneurial success.
In contrast, Democrats regard Sheehy as emblematic of the very problem they face with rising costs impacting locals. Shane Doyle, a member of the Crow Nation, characterized the influx of people as a “reverse gold rush,” suggesting that the community is becoming increasingly unwelcome to diverse perspectives and experiences.
Tester’s campaign warns that Sheehy would undermine public lands, pushing toward privatization—a concern echoed by Doyle, who argues for preserving Montana’s natural landscapes. The stark reality is that political divides are deepening, mirroring national trends of polarization.
As affordability and issues of representation take center stage, Democrats are hoping that upcoming ballot initiatives on reproductive rights resonate with younger and more progressive voters. As voters weigh their options, the outcome of this race isn’t just about Montana; it reflects the broader national struggle between contrasting political ideologies and visions for the future.
