As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the Democratic party is facing a challenge in its traditional stronghold among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania. Editor Stephen Starr reports from Pittsburgh, where the Jewish community is preparing to commemorate the sixth anniversary of the Tree of Life synagogue shooting—the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history.
The synagogue’s memorial features 11 glass and porcelain flower ornaments, each representing a life lost during that tragic event. With ongoing construction for a new museum and memorial, concerns about rising antisemitism have heightened in the years since. In a critical battleground state like Pennsylvania, Jewish voters—typically a reliable demographic for Democrats—are weighing their options for the upcoming election.
According to the American Jewish Population Project, approximately 300,000 Jews of voting age reside in Pennsylvania, the largest Jewish population among the seven battleground states. The Republican Jewish Coalition sees a potential opportunity, particularly as polls indicate Arab American voters are shifting away from Democrats this year.
The RJC is investing a significant $15 million in advertising aimed at Jewish voters, featuring messages that depict Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as disconnected from Israel’s security concerns. National Political Director Sam Markstein notes, “This is the largest amount ever spent by any Jewish group targeting Jewish voters in an election. Jewish Americans, while making up about 2% of the U.S. population, accounted for approximately 60% of all religious hate crimes last year. This is a deeply personal issue, and our leaders have not taken it seriously enough.”
Recent FBI data shows that anti-Jewish hate crimes surged in the past year, following the October attacks on Israel and the subsequent conflict in Gaza. Despite traditional Democratic support, a surprising 26% of Pennsylvania’s Jewish electorate identifies as Republican, echoing national trends.
A recent poll found Trump trailing Harris by just 12% among Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, suggesting a potential shift in allegiances. Notably, down-ballot races could further sway Jewish voters; Republican Senate candidate David McCormick, who is actively campaigning in Squirrel Hill—a neighborhood with a large Jewish population—focuses on threats to Israel from Iran while criticizing Democrats for their responses to pro-Palestinian protests.
Jim Busis, publisher of the Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle, emphasizes the impact of candidates like Democrat Summer Lee, a progressive who has faced criticism for her stance on Israel. He notes, “When voters consider Democrats versus Republicans, Lee’s position is a significant factor.” Despite her primary success, Lee’s performance among Jewish voters dropped by over 20% compared to the previous election.
Amid rising antisemitic incidents, including graffiti targeting Jewish organizations and reports of assaults against Jewish students, the Jewish community is not monolithic. Supporters of Lee’s call for a ceasefire demonstrate the complex dynamics within the electorate. Berwood Yost, director at the Center of Opinion Research, points out that while Lee’s fundraising prowess may secure her position, the broader political landscape poses challenges for Democrats.
Polling suggests that voters concerned about foreign affairs and Israel are split in their support for both Trump and Harris, indicating the competitiveness of the race. While Trump garners attention from Jewish voters in swing states, expectations still lean toward Harris, who represents what some see as the lesser of two evils.
For Philadelphia-based massage therapist and choreographer Ella-Gabriel Mason, casting an early vote for Harris was motivated by a desire for harm reduction. Mason criticizes Trump’s rhetoric regarding antisemitism and his perceived alignment with white supremacist sentiments, highlighting the complexities Jewish voters face in this election cycle.
Harris, who has previously visited the Tree of Life synagogue and spearheaded initiatives against antisemitism, remains aligned with Biden’s strong support for Israel, causing friction with Arab American voters. In contrast, Trump has faced backlash for remarks suggesting Jewish voters would share blame for his electoral outcome.
Busis suggests that Trump’s comments, rather than being a threat, reflect a growing awareness of the Jewish community’s potential influence in the upcoming election. “It’s not about a perfect parity, but a noticeable shift toward Trump could have national implications in a closely contested state.”
